Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Drafting NHL Goaltenders: How to catch a leprechaun

You could make a strong argument that no single person or position is more important to an NHL team's success and organizational stability than the goaltender. Not only is it the most difficult position to scout, project and draft - consider that only 16.7% of goalies drafted today make an impact in the NHL - it’s also the one position that highlights fundamental philosophical differences between how NHL teams believe they should be built.

Without question, some organizations are clearly better than others at drafting NHL calibre goaltenders. Others have managed to remain competitive by identifying and acquiring prospects drafted by other organizations while a few have managed to sign goaltenders that went over-looked in the draft, signing them as free agents.

Strategy over the drafting of goaltenders has always been a topic of much debate and everyone has their own strongly held opinions. Are they worth a first round pick, perhaps even a lottery pick? Can goalies of comparable talent be found in the later rounds of the draft and what, if anything has changed as the number of draft rounds has diminished over the years, especially since the lockout?

I decided to undertake a comprehensive study of more than 650 goaltenders spanning 25 years, from 1985 to 2010 covering 26 NHL drafts. I’ve divided the years into 3 eras, based on the declining number of rounds to see how teams have adjusted. I’ll examine the draft rounds in detail over time to uncover the point where quantity and quality are optimal for today’s NHL, how successful teams have been over the years and how they’re positioned going forward. I’ll also examine how the major feeder leagues have fared providing the NHL with quality goaltenders and break down where the NHL is currently mining for the netminders of tomorrow.

So, what do I consider a “successful” draft pick to be? Everyone has an opinion of course but my criterion is not merely defined by a player who manages to play one NHL game. The criteria for a successful goalie are the same used in the NHL draft study I did this past summer: 80 NHL games played, 40 for 2005+ draft picks. Why 80 games? Goalies get credit towards earning an NHL pension so long as they dress for a game, therefore it’s the relative equivalent to the 160 games needed by skaters to qualify for an NHL pension, regardless if they played in the United States or Canada.

Because most of the 130+ goalies drafted since 2005 are still in the AHL, Europe, Canadian Junior, US minor or college leagues, etc or currently breaking into the NHL, they’ve been left out of the success rate calculations. Goalies that have played enough to qualify will be included in the organisational reports while all goalies drafted between 2005-2010 will be examined for changes in post-lockout drafting strategy after the number of rounds were reduced to 7.

The effects of fewer rounds

Much of the confusion of when goalies should be drafted is based on personal perception, comparing the rounds where NHL calibre goaltenders have been drafted in the past and believing it should be pretty much the same today. Not so. The first step is to examine the impact of fewer rounds on draft strategy over time. To isolate the impact I divided this study into three groups: 11+ rounds from 1985-1994, 9 rounds from 1995-2004 and the post lockout era of 7 rounds which began in 2005:

Percentage of goalies drafted by round

Round 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1985-94 04.1 07.3 09.8 07.3 11.8 06.5 06.5 07.8 13.9 11.0 09.4 04.5
1995-04 09.6 09.6 11.3 08.9 15.6 14.9 11.7 09.9 08.5


2005-10* 07.5 13.4 13.4 15.7 20.1 16.4 13.4
* Based on past 6 years

Two things stand out. First, while goalies get selected every round, the run on drafting them has typically occurred in the second half of the draft as many teams wait, not unlike those who draft kickers in fantasy football. How long teams can wait has been reduced so the run on goalies, regardless of anything else has generally shifted over time from rounds 9 and 10 to rounds 5-6.

Second, the trend has been shifting from drafting goalies in the second half of the draft to the first half. The current trend post-lockout, 60% into a decade since suggests that while teams are slightly less willing to use a 1st round pick than the decade before, it's still almost double what it was from 1985-1994. Same for the 2nd round.

Fewer rounds, fewer goalies drafted

Relative to the number of teams in the NHL during each era, the average number of goalies being drafted per team each year has been in steady, if slight decline. The average has decreased from 1.09 during the 1985-1994 period to 1.00 spanning 1995-2004 to .85 goalies drafted per team since the lockout. The fewer draft rounds means that today, some teams won't draft a goalie at all in a given year, something that might help explain the bump in undrafted goalies currently on NHL rosters and in their farm systems.

Better to draft a goalie early or late?

Now that we've examined quantity, let's look at where quality has been found over time to get a true sense of how NHL teams have adjusted their draft strategy to fewer draft rounds:

Success rate per round

85-94

95-04

05-10
Rd Num Picks % Num Picks % Picks Trend*
1 8 10 80.0 10 27 37.0 10 14
2 12 18 66.7 7 27 25.9 18 25
3 9 24 37.5 6 32 18.8 18 25
4 3 18 16.7 2 25 8.0 21 29
5 4 29 13.8 7 44 15.9 27 38
6 4 16 25.0 6 42 14.3 22 31
7 1 16 6.3 4 33 12.1 18 25
8 3 19 15.8 3 28 10.7

9 8 34 23.5 2 24 8.3

10 2 27 7.4




11 1 23 4.3




12 0 11 0.0




Total 55 245 22.4 47 282 16.7 134 187
* Ten year forecast

What immediately jumps out is that teams were more than twice as likely (45.7% vs. 22.5%) to draft a quality goalie in the 1st four rounds from 1985-1994 with 37% fewer picks than the 1995-2004 era. Why? Because teams typically waited longer to draft goalies meaning there was more quality available for teams willing to use a higher pick to acquire them. The surge seen in the 9th round from 1985-1994 will be explained later when European goaltenders are studied. Overall however, the success rate fell from 22.4% on average to just 16.7 prior to the lockout.

Quality by round over time

What rounds have typically produced both quantity and quality goaltending over the years? By breaking down the draft years by round, a clear pattern emerges that demonstrates how teams are drafting successful goalies earlier than ever before. In short, the deeper into the draft you go, the further back in time you go to find quality netminders:

Rd Year Team Name GP
1 2006 Washington Semyon Varlamov* 42
1 2005 Montreal Carey Price* 163
1 2005 Toronto  Tuukka Rask* 60
1 2003 Pittsburgh  Marc-Andre Fleury* 325
1 2002 Atlanta  Kari Lehtonen* 239
1 2002 Carolina  Cam Ward* 298
1 2001 Columbus  Pascal Leclaire* 173
1 2000 NY Islanders  Rick DiPietro* 295
1 1997 NY Islanders  Roberto Luongo* 636
1 1995 Carolina  Jean-Sebastien Giguere* 510
1 1995 Buffalo  Martin Biron* 472
1 1995 Philadelphia  Brian Boucher* 291
1 1995 Colorado  Marc Denis  349
1 1994 Los Angeles  Jamie Storr  219
1 1994 Toronto  Eric Fichaud  95
1 1994 NY Rangers  Dan Cloutier  351
1 1993 Colorado  Jocelyn Thibault  596
1 1990 Calgary  Trevor Kidd  387
1 1990 New Jersey  Martin Brodeur* 1096
1 1989 Washington  Olaf Kolzig  719
1 1987 Chicago  Jimmy Waite  106
Rd Year Team Name GP
2 2006 Washington Michal Neuvirth* 44
2 2005 Atlanta  Ondrej Pavelec* 82
2 2003 Detroit  Jim Howard* 96
2 2002 Minnesota  Josh Harding* 83
2 2001 Colorado  Peter Budaj* 214
2 2000 Anaheim  Ilya Bryzgalov* 284
2 2000 Dallas  Dan Ellis* 131
2 1999 Florida  Alex Auld* 210
2 1996 Montreal Mathieu Garon* 254
2 1994 Montreal Jose Theodore* 559
2 1993 Florida  Kevin Weekes  350
2 1992 Washington  Jim Carey  172
2 1990 Toronto  Felix Potvin  640
2 1989 Washington  Byron Dafoe  415
2 1988 Colorado Stephane Fiset  390
2 1987 Pittsburgh  Rick Tabaracci  287
2 1987 Los Angeles  Mark Fitzpatrick  329
2 1987 NY Islanders  Jeff Hackett  500
2 1985 New Jersey  Sean Burke  820
2 1985 Carolina  Kay Whitmore  155
2 1985 NY Rangers  Mike Richter  666
Rd Year Team Name GP
3 2006 Columbus  Steve Mason* 139
3 2005 Los Angeles  Jonathan Quick* 141
3 2001 Chicago  Craig Anderson* 195
3 2000 Toronto  Mikael Tellqvist  114
3 1999 Calgary  Craig Anderson* - Unsigned 195
3 1999 Pittsburgh  Sebastien Caron  92
3 1998 NY Rangers  Jason Labarbera* 130
3 1995 Pittsburgh  Jean-Sebastien Aubin  218
3 1992 Colorado  Manny Fernandez  325
3 1991 NY Islanders  Jamie McLennan  254
3 1991 Detroit  Chris Osgood* 739
3 1990 New Jersey  Mike Dunham  394
3 1988 Phoenix  Stephane Beauregard  90
3 1988 Philadelphia  Dominic Roussel  205
3 1986 Washington  Jim Hrivnak  85
3 1985 Boston  Bill Ranford  647
3 1985 Phoenix  Daniel Berthiaume  215
Rd Year Team Name GP
4 2001 Ottawa  Ray Emery  163
4 1995 San Jose  Vesa Toskala  266
4 1991 NY Islanders  Milan Hnilicka  121
4 1986 Detroit  Tim Cheveldae  340
4 1986 Colorado Ron Tugnutt  538
Rd Year Team Name GP
5 2001 Edmonton  Jussi Markkanen  128
5 2001 Dallas  Mike Smith* 156
5 1999 Buffalo  Ryan Miller* 355
5 1998 Boston  Andrew Raycroft* 260
5 1995 San Jose  Miikka Kiprusoff* 485
5 1995 New Jersey  Chris Mason* 268
5 1995 Colorado  Brent Johnson* 281
5 1994 Dallas  Marty Turco* 529
5 1993 Anaheim  Mikhail Shtalenkov  224
5 1993 NY Islanders  Tommy Salo  526
5 1991 Buffalo  Steve Shields  246
Rd Year Team Name GP
6 2001 Atlanta  Pasi Nurminen  125
6 2000 Philadelphia  Roman Cechmanek  212
6 1999 Chicago  Mike Leighton* 103
6 1998 Philadelphia  Antero Niittymaki* 227
6 1997 Colorado  David Aebischer  214
6 1996 Phoenix  Robert Esche  186
6 1993 Pittsburgh  Patrick Lalime* 442
6 1990 Dallas  Roman Turek  328
6 1987 Toronto  Damian Rhodes  309
6 1987 Colorado Garth Snow  368
Rd Year Team Name GP
7 2002 Tampa Bay  Fredrik Norrena  100
7 2001 Los Angeles  Cristobal Huet  272
7 2000 NY Rangers  Henrik Lundqvist* 364
7 1997 NY Rangers  Johan Holmqvist  98
7 1985 St. Louis  Pat Jablonski  128
Rd Year Team Name GP
8 2004 Nashville  Pekka Rinne* 132
8 2001 Anaheim  Martin Gerber  226
8 1997 New Jersey  Scott Clemmensen* 98
8 1993 Carolina  Manny Legace  365
8 1991 NY Rangers  Corey Hirsch  108
8 1987 St. Louis  Guy Hebert  491
Rd Year Team Name GP
9 2003 Montreal Jaroslav Halak* 125
9 2003 Ottawa  Brian Elliott* 109
9 1994 Colorado  Tim Thomas* 283
9 1994 Philadelphia  Johan Hedberg* 306
9 1994 San Jose  Evgeni Nabokov  563
9 1994 Montreal Tomas Vokoun* 599
9 1994 Boston  John Grahame  224
9 1992 Colorado  Steve Passmore  93
9 1992 Phoenix  Nikolai Khabibulin* 717
9 1988 Buffalo  Wade Flaherty  120
Rd Year Team Name GP
10 1990 New Jersey  Corey Schwab  147
10 1989 Dallas  Arturs Irbe  568
Rd Year Team Name GP
11 1990 Philadelphia  Tommy Soderstrom  156
Rd Year Team Name GP
12 None None None 0

Given that teams now typically draft less than one goalie per year and that the odds of selecting a quality netminder after the 3rd round has fallen to just 12.2% it's easy to understand why so many teams go several years, sometimes even a decade or longer before finding a quality goaltender. It also shows that the majority of teams still waiting until rounds 4, 5 and 6 need to re-think their draft strategy.

When should NHL teams target a goalie?

There's no question it's risky to spend a 1st round pick on a goalie. Using stats from my study of the NHL draft this past summer, the average success rate of a 1st round pick, regardless of position is 65% vs. 37% for goalies drafted in the decade before the lockout. Unless a team has a major organizational need or it's a relatively weak draft year for skaters, drafting goaltenders in the 1st round is a risky endeavour, even more so with a lottery pick.

The sweet spot now appears to be the 2nd round. The success rate for skaters drafted in the 2nd round drops to 27% vs. 25.9% for goalies drafted between 1995-2004. Given that teams typically select just one netminder, the 2nd round appears to be the best spot where the risk is comparable to all other positions.

Feeding the NHL draft - Who's providing the prospects?

This study wouldn't be complete without a hard look at the leagues primarily responsible for providing the NHL with its goaltending prospects. I've broken down Europe, the OHL, WHL, QMJHL and assorted North American leagues and examined how each has done, over time producing NHL draft picks:

1985-1994: Who's providing the prospects

Rd Picks NHL EUR NHL OHL NHL WHL NHL QMJHL NHL US/CAN NHL
1 10 8 1 0 2 2 2 2 4 4 1 0
2 18 12 0 0 9 5 4 2 3 3 2 2
3 24 9 1 0 7 0 5 3 7 4 4 2
4 18 3 1 1 6 1 3 1 1 0 7 0
5 29 4 3 1 5 0 4 0 6 0 11 3
6 16 4 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 10 2
7 16 1 1 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 9 1
8 19 3 2 0 4 1 2 1 1 0 10 1
9 34 8 9 4 2 0 4 2 1 0 18 2
10 27 1 4 0 4 0 3 1 3 0 13 0
11 23 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 18 0
12 11 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 0
Total 245 55 29 9 44 9 30 12 31 12 111 13
% 22.4 11.8 31.0 18.0 20.5 12.2 40.0 12.7 38.7 45.3 11.7

Of the 29 European goalies drafted between 1985-1994, a third of them were drafted in the 9th round, half of those making the NHL. Even though Europeans only totalled 11.8% of all goaltenders drafted, they produced 31% of all successful NHL netminders, trailing only the WHL and QMJHL's contribution. No wonder Europe drew significant attention after 1994. The various other North American leagues were primarily only mined in the later rounds and even though their failure rate was a league-worst 88% they still managed to produce 13 goaltenders, more than any other league.

1995-2004: Who's providing the prospects

Rd PicksNHL EURNHLOHLNHLWHLNHLQMJHLNHLUS/CANNHL
1 27 10 5 1 4 0 5 2 9 6 4 1
2 27 7 4 1 5 2 6 1 8 1 4 2
3 32 6 10 1 7 2 8 1 5 2 2 0
4 25 2 6 1 7 1 5 0 5 0 2 0
5 44 7 11 2 9 3 9 1 5 0 10 1
6 42 6 12 4 6 2 7 0 6 0 11 0
7 33 4 10 4 8 0 4 0 1 0 10 0
8 28 3 10 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 11 1
9 24 2 5 1 5 0 3 0 2 0 9 1
Total 282 47 73 17 53 10 47 5 46 9 63 6
% 16.7 25.9 23.3 18.8 18.9 16.7 10.6 16.3 19.6 22.3 9.5

Duplication, the ultimate compliment. Once NHL teams realized others were having success in Europe drafting goalies, the flood gates opened. During the era of 1995-2004, NHL teams drafted more Europeans than any other league, increasing the number 2.5 times from 29 to 73. Despite a very poor showing in the first 4 rounds, Europe still produced more NHL goaltenders than any other league. Of the 25 European netminders drafted over the first 4 rounds, 10 were from Finland with just 2 making it; Kari Lehtonen and Vesa Toskala which suggests Finland was being over-drafted in the Euro gold rush.

2005-2010: Who's providing the prospects

Rd Picks EUR OHL WHL QMJHL US/CAN
1 10 3 2 3 1 1
2 18 7 3 3 4 1
3 18 4 4 4 1 5
4 21 6 3 2 4 5
5 27 4 7 5 4 7
6 22 4 6 1 2 8
7 18 6 0 3 1 7
Total 134 34 25 21 17 37
% 25.4 18.7 15.7 12.7 27.6

Post-lockout, Europe still provides 25% of all goalies drafted by the NHL. The QMJHL has seen its percentage of NHL calibre goaltenders decline from 38.7% to 19.6% while the WHL has seen its number of quality goalies drop to 10.6%. The WHL decline is position specific however as the league overall is still very strong producing both quality and quantity at other positions.

The QMJHL decline however is reflective of a league-wide problem as there's been a significant drop in quality and quantity across the board compared to the previous decade. Most surprisingly, of the 41 goaltenders drafted from the QMJHL after the 3rd round since 1985, only one succeeded in the NHL, Patrick Lalime who was drafted in the 6th round back in 1993... 17 years ago.

Who's producing Europe's best?

A number of factors are in play but there's no question the lack of a IIHF player transfer agreement has had an impact on which countries NHL teams are going to, or more importantly, avoiding. Since the lockout, Sweden and Finland now produce a combined 64.7% of all goaltenders drafted from Europe. That's up from 49.9% in 1995-2004 and 44.8% from 1985-1994. They are also the two countries currently with the best relations with the NHL:

2005-10 1995-04 1985-94
 Country   Picks   Trend  %  Country   Picks  %  Country   Picks  %
Sweden 12 17 35.3 Sweden 11 14.9 Sweden 10 34.5
Finland 10 14 29.4 Finland 24 32.4 Finland 3 10.3
Czech* 4 6 11.8 Czech* 12 16.2 Czech* 5 17.2
Russia 4 6 11.8 Russia 11 14.9 Russia 7 24.1
Germany 2 3 5.9 Germany 5 6.8 Germany 1 3.4
Swiss 1 1 2.9 Swiss 4 5.4 Swiss 2 6.9
Slovakia* 0 0 0.0 Slovakia* 5 6.8 Slovakia* 0 0.0
Ukraine 0 0 0.0 Ukraine 1 1.4 Ukraine 0 0.0
Japan 0 0 0.0 Japan 1 1.4 Japan 0 0.0
Denmark 1 1 2.9 Denmark 0 0.0 Denmark 0 0.0
Latvia 0 0 0.0 Latvia 0 0.0 Latvia 1 3.4
34 48 74 29
* The Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic became two separate countries in 1993

My study on the NHL's exodus from Europe explains the decline in continental Europe in detail though casual observers and league presidents would like everyone to believe it's just due to enrollment and financial issues, issues that are global concerns for the sport. The reality is that NHL teams, with just 7 draft picks are no longer willing to use them on players who aren't committed to playing in North America. Once a new PTA is in place, there will be more NHL teams willing to take a chance.

NHL Team reports - Past vs. present

To fully understand which teams have been more committed to drafting goaltenders, it's also important to look at how each are positioned today. Which teams have adjusted their drafting strategy for the post-lockout era of a 7 round draft? Are they still drafting late when all the evidence suggests the low frequency of drafting netminders combined with the low success rate of recent years in those late rounds means they'll likely go a decade or more before they luck into a quality player?

Below is a breakdown on the draft history of each NHL team. How many goalies they've selected over 26 draft years and a list of their goalies, in bold, who've managed to have some measure of success, in descending order from the year they were drafted. Also included is a current list of drafted netminders, in italics that were drafted by each organization who may still have a chance to succeed. Prospects that have been traded away are indicated:

ANAHEIM - 15/18 Year Rd # GP
Martin Gerber  2001 8 232 228
Ilya Bryzgalov* 2000 2 44 284
Mikhail Shtalenkov  1993 5 108 224
Igor Bobkov  2009 3 76 0
Marco Cousineau  2008 3 83 0
Sebastian Stefaniszin  2007 4 98 0
Mattias Modig (Traded to PIT) 2007 4 121 0
Jean-Philippe Levasseur  2005 7 197 0
ATLANTA - 11/12 Year Rd # GP
Ondrej Pavelec* 2005 2 41 82
Kari Lehtonen* 2002 1 2 239
Pasi Nurminen  2001 6 189 125
Fredrik Petterson-Wentzel 2010 5 128 0
Edward Pasquale  2009 4 117 0
Chris Carrozzi  2008 6 154 0
Alex Kangas  2006 5 135 0
BOSTON - 22/26 Year Rd # GP
Andrew Raycroft* 1998 5 135 260
John Grahame  1994 9 229 224
Bill Ranford  1985 3 52 647
Zane Gothberg 2010 6 165 0
Michael Hutchinson  2008 3 77 0
BUFFALO - 24/26 Year Rd # GP
Ryan Miller* 1999 5 138 355
Martin Biron* 1995 1 16 472
Steve Shields  1991 5 101 246
Wade Flaherty  1988 9 181 120
Connor Knapp  2009 6 164 0
Bradley Eidsness  2007 5 139 0
Nick Eno  2007 7 187 0
Jhonas Enroth  2006 2 46 1
CALGARY - 20/26 Year Rd # GP
Trevor Kidd  1990 1 11 387
Craig Anderson* Unsigned 1999 3 77 195
Joni Ortio  2009 6 171 0
Leland Irving  2006 1 26 0
Matt Keetley  2005 5 158 1
CAROLINA - 22/26 Year Rd # GP
Cam Ward* 2002 1 25 298
Jean-Sebastien Giguere* 1995 1 13 510
Manny Legace  1993 8 188 365
Kay Whitmore  1985 2 26 155
Frederik Andersen  2010 7 187 0
Mike Murphy  2008 6 165 0
Justin Peters* 2004 2 38 16
CHICAGO - 22/26 Year Rd # GP
Craig Anderson* 2001 3 73 195
Mike Leighton* 1999 6 165 103
Jimmy Waite  1987 1 8 106
Kent Simpson  2010 2 58 0
Mac Carruth  2010 7 191 0
Corey Crawford* 2003 2 52 23
COLORADO - 36/26 Year Rd # GP
Peter Budaj* 2001 2 63 214
David Aebischer  1997 6 161 214
Marc Denis  1995 1 25 349
Brent Johnson* 1995 5 129 281
Tim Thomas* 1994 9 217 283
Jocelyn Thibault  1993 1 10 596
Manny Fernandez  1992 3 52 325
Steve Passmore  1992 9 196 93
Stephane Fiset  1988 2 24 390
Garth Snow  1987 6 114 368
Ron Tugnutt  1986 4 81 538
Calvin Pickard  2010 2 49 0
Sami Aittokallio 2010 4 107 0
Kieran Millan  2009 5 124 0
Brandon Maxwell  2009 6 154 0
Trevor Cann  2007 2 49 0
Kent Patterson  2007 4 113 0
COLUMBUS - 8/11 Year Rd # GP
Steve Mason* 2006 3 69 139
Pascal Leclaire* 2001 1 8 173
Mathieu Corbeil-Theriault  2010 4 102 0
Martin Ouellette 2010 7 184 0
Allen York  2007 6 158 0
DALLAS - 26/26 Year Rd # GP
Mike Smith* 2001 5 161 156
Dan Ellis* 2000 2 60 131
Marty Turco* 1994 5 124 529
Roman Turek  1990 6 113 328
Arturs Irbe  1989 10 196 568
Jack Campbell  2010 1 11 0
Tyler Beskorowany  2008 2 59 0
Richard Bachman  2006 4 120 0
DETROIT - 25/26 Year Rd # GP
Jim Howard* 2003 2 64 96
Chris Osgood* 1991 3 54 739
Tim Cheveldae  1986 4 64 340
Petr Mrazek  2010 5 141 0
Thomas McCollum  2008 1 30 0
Daniel Larsson  2006 3 92 0
EDMONTON - 27/26 Year Rd # GP
Jussi Markkanen  2001 5 133 128
Tyler Bunz  2010 5 121 0
Olivier Roy  2009 5 133 0
Bryan Pitton  2006 5 133 0
Devan Dubnyk* 2004 1 14 29
FLORIDA - 17/18 Year Rd # GP
Kevin Weekes  1993 2 41 350
Alex Auld* 1999 2 40 210
Sam Brittain 2010 4 92 0
Jacob Markstrom  2008 2 31 0
Sergei Gayduchenko  2007 7 202 0
Marc Cheverie  2006 7 193 0
Tyler Plante  2005 2 32 0
LOS ANGELES - 31/26 Year Rd # GP
Jonathan Quick* 2005 3 72 141
Cristobal Huet  2001 7 214 272
Jamie Storr  1994 1 7 219
Mark Fitzpatrick  1987 2 27 329
Jean-Francois Berube  2009 4 95 0
Jonathan Bernier* 2006 1 11 14
Jeff Zatkoff  2006 3 74 0
MINNESOTA - 9/11 Year Rd # GP
Josh Harding* 2002 2 38 83
Johan Gustafsson  2010 6 159 0
Matt Hackett  2009 3 77 0
Darcy Kuemper  2009 6 161 0
Anton Khudobin  2004 7 206 2
MONTREAL - 21/26 Year Rd # GP
Carey Price* 2005 1 5 163
Jaroslav Halak* 2003 9 271 125
Mathieu Garon* 1996 2 44 254
Jose Theodore* 1994 2 44 559
Tomas Vokoun* 1994 9 226 599
NASHVILLE - 15/13 Year Rd # GP
Pekka Rinne* 2004 8 258 132
Chet Pickard  2008 1 18 0
Anders Lindback* 2008 7 207 14
Jeremy Smith  2007 2 54 0
Atte Engren  2007 7 204 0
Mark Dekanich 2006 5 146 0
NEW JERSEY - 24/26 Year Rd # GP
Scott Clemmensen* 1997 8 215 98
Chris Mason* 1995 5 122 268
Martin Brodeur* 1990 1 20 1096
Mike Dunham  1990 3 53 394
Corey Schwab  1990 10 200 147
Sean Burke  1985 2 24 820
Scott Wedgewood  2010 3 84 0
Maxime Clermont  2010 6 174 0
Jeff Frazee  2005 2 38 0
NY ISLANDERS - 27/26 Year Rd # GP
Rick DiPietro* 2000 1 1 295
Roberto Luongo* 1997 1 4 636
Tommy Salo  1993 5 118 526
Jamie McLennan  1991 3 48 254
Milan Hnilicka  1991 4 70 121
Jeff Hackett  1987 2 34 500
Cody Rosen  2010 7 185 0
Mikko Koskinen  2009 2 31 0
Anders Nilsson  2009 3 62 0
Kevin Poulin  2008 5 126 0
Jase Weslosky  2006 4 108 0
Stefan Ridderwall  2006 6 173 0
NY RANGERS - 23/26 Year Rd # GP
Henrik Lundqvist* 2000 7 205 364
Jason Labarbera* 1998 3 66 130
Johan Holmqvist  1997 7 175 98
Dan Cloutier  1994 1 26 351
Corey Hirsch  1991 8 169 108
Mike Richter  1985 2 28 666
Scott Stajcer  2009 5 140 0
OTTAWA - 15/19 Year Rd # GP
Brian Elliott* 2003 9 291 109
Ray Emery  2001 4 99 163
Robin Lehner  2009 2 46 0
PHILADELPHIA - 33/26 Year Rd # GP
Roman Cechmanek  2000 6 171 212
Antero Niittymaki* 1998 6 168 227
Brian Boucher* 1995 1 22 291
Johan Hedberg* 1994 9 218 306
Tommy Soderstrom  1990 11 214 156
Dominic Roussel  1988 3 63 205
Adam Morrison  2009 3 81 0
Nicola Riopel  2009 5 142 0
Joacim Eriksson  2008 7 196 0
Brad Phillips  2007 7 182 0
Jakub Kovar  2006 4 109 0
PHOENIX - 28/26 Year Rd # GP
Robert Esche  1996 6 139 186
Nikolai Khabibulin* 1992 9 204 717
Stephane Beauregard  1988 3 52 90
Daniel Berthiaume  1985 3 60 215
Mark Visentin  2010 1 27 0
Mike Lee  2009 3 91 0
Joel Gistedt  2007 2 36 0
Scott Darling  2007 6 153 0
Brett Bennett  2006 5 130 0
PITTSBURGH - 27/26 Year Rd # GP
Marc-Andre Fleury* 2003 1 1 325
Sebastien Caron  1999 3 86 92
Jean-Sebastien Aubin  1995 3 76 218
Patrick Lalime* 1993 6 156 442
Rick Tabaracci  1987 2 26 287
Alexandre Pechurskiy  2008 5 150 1
Patrick Killeen  2008 6 180 0
Chad Johnson (Traded to NYR) 2006 5 125 5
SAN JOSE - 22/20 Year Rd # GP
Vesa Toskala  1995 4 90 266
Miikka Kiprusoff* 1995 5 116 485
Evgeni Nabokov  1994 9 219 563
Harri Sateri  2008 4 106 0
Timo Pielmeier (Traded to ANA) 2007 3 83 0
Tyson Sexsmith  2007 3 91 0
Alex Stalock  2005 4 112 0
Thomas Greiss  2004 3 94 19
ST. LOUIS - 24/26 Year Rd # GP
Guy Hebert  1987 8 159 491
Pat Jablonski  1985 7 138 128
Jake Allen  2008 2 34 0
Paul Karpowich  2008 7 185 0
Reto Berra  2006 4 106 0
Ben Bishop  2005 3 85 6
TAMPA BAY - 19/19 Year Rd # GP
Fredrik Norrena  2002 7 213 100
Michael Zador  2009 5 148 0
Jaroslav Janus  2009 6 162 0
Dustin Tokarski  2008 5 122 2
Riku Helenius  2006 1 15 1
TORONTO - 19/26 Year Rd # GP
Tuukka Rask* 2005 1 21 60
Mikael Tellqvist  2000 3 70 114
Eric Fichaud  1994 1 16 95
Felix Potvin  1990 2 31 640
Damian Rhodes  1987 6 112 309
Grant Rollheiser  2008 6 158 0
James Reimer  2006 4 99 0
Justin Pogge (Traded to CAR) 2004 3 90 7
VANCOUVER - 25/26 Year Rd # GP
NONE 0 0 0 0
Jonathan Iilahti 2010 6 175 0
Joe Cannata  2009 6 173 0
Cory Schneider* 2004 1 26 17
WASHINGTON - 23/26 Year Rd # GP
Semyon Varlamov* 2006 1 23 42
Michal Neuvirth* 2006 2 34 44
Jim Carey  1992 2 32 172
Olaf Kolzig  1989 1 19 719
Byron Dafoe  1989 2 35 415
Jim Hrivnak  1986 3 61 85
Philipp Grubauer  2010 4 112 0
Braden Holtby  2008 4 93 0

For the most part, it's not for lack of trying that many teams struggle badly to draft an NHL calibre goaltender. That said, the teams least committed to drafting goalies at all are 1. Toronto 2. Calgary and 3. Ottawa, not just for the low number of draft picks used on netminders over the years but the weak pool of prospects in their systems today, a fact that suggests trades and free agents are a core belief in their organizational philosophy.

The worst drafting teams overall are 1. Vancouver 2. Edmonton 3. St. Louis 4. Calgary and 5. Tampa Bay, which by default means they must resort to trades and free agents. As shocked as I am to see so many Canadian teams struggle to find or in the case of some, not even try to find goaltenders, the Vancouver Canucks are easily the worst.

Since 1985, the Canucks haven't produced a single drafted goalie who went on to play 80 NHL games. To find the last one who did, you'd have to go back almost 30 years to Wendell Young, drafted in 1981 who managed to play 187 NHL games though just 30 with Vancouver.

If not for Jussi Markkanen's 128 games played, the Edmonton Oilers would also need to go back to 1981 for the last time a drafted goaltender played just 80 games. Fellow by the name of Grant Fuhr. The St. Louis Blues haven't produced a goalie since 1987 when they drafted Guy Hebert while Calgary hasn't produced anything since Trevor Kidd was selected in 1990. Tampa Bay drafted Fredrik Norrena in 2002 who's 100 NHL games played is the best goaltender the Lightning has ever produced in the 19 years they've been drafting prospects.

The Carey Price argument

Media pundits tend to believe NHL teams should draft goalies based on immediate needs and clearly, some NHL teams share that belief. Unfortunately that doesn't apply to goaltenders who typically take upwards of 5 years to become starting netminders in the NHL.

When the Montreal Canadiens were bashed in the media for drafting Carey Price, it wasn't because Gilbert Brule was the first alternative pick mentioned, it was because of their depth in goal at the time: Jose Theodore, Cristobal Huet and Yann Danis. Today, just as Carey Price has established himself only Thoedore remains in the NHL, a backup with the Minnesota Wild.

Some may argue when you have a money goalie like Marty Brodeur has been over the years, you don't need to waste high draft picks on other goalies. What many don't realize is that twice since drafting Brodeur in 1990, the New Jersey Devils used 1st round picks on a netminder.

Smart teams who have a history of drafting quality goaltenders know it takes years and requires great patience to scout, project, draft and develop NHL calibre netminders. And as this study shows, it takes years of drafting goalies until that quality emerges and that waiting until the late rounds to draft them is no longer a recipe for success.